Since 1993, the International Energy Agency (IEA) has provided medium to long-term energy projections using the World Energy Model (WEM). The model is a large-scale simulation model designed to replicate how energy markets function and is the principal tool used to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by-region projections for the World Energy Outlook (WEO) scenarios. Developed over many years, the model broadly consists of three main sections covering:
Outputs from the model include energy flows by fuel, investment needs and costs, CO2 emissions and end-user pricing and is calculated for each of the 25 regions modelled in the WEM (see Annex 2: regional definitions). An extensive effort is undertaken each year to incorporate energy and climate-related policies and measures into our modelling and analysis with details and sources provided under policy databases.
A detailed description of the World Energy Model and supporting documents covering topics such as energy efficiency, energy subsidies, climate change analysis and power sector analysis may be found in the documentation section. The investment costs section outlines input assumptions to the WEM for the power generation sector and for passenger light duty vehicles (PLDVs).
New Features in World Energy Outlook 2012
The WEO-2012 continues past practice of using a scenario approach to examine future energy trends out to 2035. It presents four scenarios: the New Policies Scenario, the Current Policies Scenario, the 450 Scenario and a new scenario this year called the Efficient World Scenario with a focus on energy efficiency. Comprehensive historical data through to 2010 are presented and used in the modelling, although wherever possible preliminary 2011 data are also included.
Some of the changes made to the WEM for the purposes of the WEO-2012 are highlighted below:
Full details may be found in the detailed description of WEM.