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World Energy Outlook

12 November 2012, Time

The International Energy Agency expects the United States to become the world’s largest oil producer by around 2020, temporarily overtaking Saudi Arabia, thanks to increased output achieved by new exploration technologies. The World Energy Outlook 2012 released Monday by the Paris-based IEA also predicts that greater oil and natural gas production as well as rising energy efficiency will allow the U.S., which currently imports around 20 percent of its energy needs, to become nearly self-sufficient by around 2035. The IEA says rebounding U.S. oil and gas production and increasing light tight oil and shale gas resources are “steadily changing the role of North America in global energy trade” and will speed up the change of direction of international oil trade from the Middle East toward Asia.

12 November 2012, The Telegraph

The International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its World Energy Outlook for 2012 this morning that the US will be a net exporter of gas by 2020, with all the vast implications of abundant cheap gas for its chemical, plastics, glass, and steel industries. "The United States, which currently imports around 20 per cent of its total energy needs, becomes all but self-sufficient in net terms – a dramatic reversal of the trend seen in most other energy importing countries," it said. This is entirely due to the shale and gas revolution. North America as a whole will become a significant net exporter. The 2012 World Energy Outlook featured several other striking messages: Coal has provided half the entire growth in world energy supply over the last decade, much more than renewables; Total investment in oil and gas alone this year is (estimated) $619 billion. It shows the sheer scale; Total oil output will be less than 100 million b/d by 2035. This is not that much higher than this year at 87 million.

13 November 2012, National Geographic

The U.S., which imports 20 percent of its total energy now, will be come largely self-sufficient by 2035, concluded the IEA’s annual World Energy Outlook, often viewed as the Bible of the industry. Add in Canada, which has its own unconventional production boom in Alberta’s oil sands, and the continent is set to be a net oil exporter by 2030. U.S. imports of oil are on track to fall from 10 million to 4 million barrels per day, Fatih Birol, IEA’s chief economist and the main author of the report, told a London news conference. However, he added, increased domestic production, including biofuel, only accounts for 55 percent of huge reduction in imported oil. The other 45 percent is due to the ramping up of improving federal fuel efficiency standards for cars and trucks. Amid its forecast for rising energy demand and production, the report, unsurprisingly, does not paint an optimistic picture of efforts to contain greenhouse gas emissions. IEA projects that energy-related carbon dioxide emissions will rise from an estimated 31.2 gigatonnes (Gt) last year to 37 Gt in 2035, which could cause a long-term average temperature increase of 3.6 degrees Celsius.

12 November 2012, Sydney Morning Herald

The huge untapped potential saving from more efficient use of energy and a resurgence of US energy production are two key conclusions from this year's World Energy Outlook report compiled by the International Energy Agency. The "disappointingly slow progress" over the past decade towards more productive energy use means countries are paying a price in economic growth, energy security and the environment, the agency said. "We consider it [potential savings] as a hidden fuel and a key option in the hands of policymakers," said Maria van der Hoeven, the IEA's Executive Director. For instance, the growth in global energy demand to 2035 could be halved through efficiency measures, saving the equivalent of 13 million barrels of oil a day, or the sum of Norway and Russia's oil output. The building sector has grabbed just a fifth of the potential savings from better insulation and other steps to limit energy use, while industry can more than double its achieved savings, the IEA said. By making efficient energy use a priority, nations would be able to extend the period beyond which rising greenhouse gas emissions mean the world is locked into global warming of at least 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

12 November 2012, Nikkei

The IEA projected that between 2010 and 2035 nuclear-generated electricity will increase 58% globally, making a large downward revision from the previous year’s forecast of 70%. Regarding Japan, LNG imports will increase, which will lead to higher electricity prices, around twice the level of US prices or 3 times those in China. Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven told the Nikkei reporter that she worries about higher LNG prices in Asia, adding however, that Japan was free to choose its nuclear policy.

12 November 2012, Kyodo News

The International Energy Agency (IEA) projected that nuclear-generated electricity will increase 58% in the world from 2010 to 2035, making a large downward revision from the previous year’s forecast of 70%. After the Fukushima Daiichi accident, there is a sign of a retreat from nuclear power in Germany and France as well as Japan.

12 November 2012, Chosun Ilbo

Global energy demand will increase by 30% and oil price will rise to $125 per barrel by 2035, the IEA says. IEA is the most authoritative international organization on energy, and releases an annual report projecting mid- and long-term projections on global energy supply and demand. A special focus was on Iraq’s potential as an oil producer in the future, and its impact on the global energy market.

12 November 2012, YTN Korea

Renewables are set to move to the center stage by 2035 according to the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2012 (WEO-2012) report. The IEA expects solar to grow the fastest among renewables. As energy demand grows in China, India and the Middle East, the global energy demand will increase by 30% by 2035. The Executive Director of the IEA, Ms Maria van der Hoeven, will visit Korea on 23 November at the invitation of the Ministry of Knowledge Economy to present the WEO-2012 report.

12 November 2012, Live Mint India

India, China and West Asian nations will account for 60% of the world’s energy demand by 2035, when the price of imported crude oil will be $215 a barrel in nominal terms, the International Energy Agency (IEA) projected in its World Energy Outlook 2012 report. By 2025, India will also be the world’s second largest consumer of coal after China, playing a major role in international energy pricing, it said. “Growth in oil consumption in emerging economies, particularly for transport in China, India and the Middle East, more than outweighs reduced demand in the OECD, pushing oil use steadily higher in the New Policies Scenario,” the world’s premier energy monitor said in its report. “Oil demand reaches 99.7 mb/d (million barrels per day) in 2035, up from 87.4 mb/d in 2011, and the average IEA crude oil import price rises to $125/barrel (in year-2011 dollars) in 2035 (over $215/barrel in nominal terms).”, the IEA added.

12 November 2012, Economic Times India

Global demand for electricity could rise by over 70 percent between 2010 and 2035 driven largely by rising demand from emerging economies, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said on Monday. That was an annual average of 2.2 percent per year, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook. Over 80 percent of the growth in the power sector will come from non-OECD countries, with China (38 per cent) and India (13 per cent) taking the lion's share, the IEA on Monday. "Global generating capacity expands by almost three-quarters, from 5,429 GW in 2011 to 9,340 GW by 2035," the report said. The expansion is equivalent to around 4,000 standard-sized power stations. "Gas and wind together account for almost 50 percent of the increase, followed by coal and hydro at about 15 percent each," the report said.