Since 1993, the IEA has provided medium to long-term energy projections using a World Energy Model (WEM). The model is a large-scale mathematical construct designed to replicate how energy markets function and is the principal tool used to generate detailed sector-by-sector and region-by region projections for various scenarios including the Reference Scenario. Developed over many years, the model consists of six main modules: final energy demand (with sub‑models covering residential, services, agriculture, industry, transport and non-energy use); power generation and heat; refinery/petrochemicals and other transformation; fossil-fuel supply; CO2 emissions and investment.
Detailed description of the World Energy Model – with 2009 updates;
The Office of the Chief Economist (OCE) developed in collaboration with the CIRED, a General Equilibrium Model (called WEM-ECO) with a detailed representation of the energy sector, by coupling OCE's WEM model with CIRED’s IMACLIM-R model. Integrating a General Equilibrium Model with the IEA partial equilibrium WEM model makes it possible for IEA to provide more insights on the economic and trade issues associated with different energy policies and scenarios (prices, GDP, trade and investment, etc…). OCE used this new WEM-ECO model for the WEO 2007 study on the implications of energy developments in China and India on the rest of the world, particularly for the assessment of the impact of different economic and energy scenarios on other countries' GDP and trade movements, as well as the impact of increased pressure on international oil markets. The WEM-ECO model provides also inputs for the economic implications of climate scenarios.
WEM-ECO Model Description
New Features in World Energy Outlook 2009
The WEO-2009 continues past practice in using a scenario approach to examine future energy trends: this year, the Reference Scenario and the 450 Scenario. The projection period currently runs to 2030; 2007 is the last year for which comprehensive historical data are available but, in many cases, preliminary data are available for 2008 and have been incorporated.
The following changes were made to WEM for the purposes of the WEO-2009:
- Power-generation and gas-supply modules have been completely overhauled.
- The transport and carbon-flow models have been enhanced.
- A new water desalination/power module has been incorporated for the Middle East and North Africa.
There are now 24 WEM regions (see Annex 2 in the document above) compared to 21 WEM regions that were in place for WEO-2008. Furthermore for the purposes of the special focus on the ASEAN region included in the WEO-2009, country-level models for Malaysia, Philippines and Thailand were also developed.
A database with over 3 000 policies and measures in OECD and non-OECD countries is available in
Policy Database webpage.
