Big questions abound in global energy in 2015
— Could oil prices stay lower for longer? What would it take for this to happen and what it would mean for energy security and for the energy transition?
— India is set for a period of rapid, sustained growth in energy demand: how could this re-shape the energy scene?
— What do new climate pledges mean for the way that the world meets its rising needs for energy?
— What are the implications of the rising coverage of energy efficiency policies and the growing competitiveness of renewables?
— Is the unconventional gas revolution going to go global, or to remain a North American phenomenon?
These issues – and many more – are discussed here, with a special focus on India accompanying the customary, in-depth WEO analysis of the prospects for all fossil fuels, renewables, the power sector and energy efficiency around the world to 2040.
Further details and the free download of the Executive Summary may be found on the detailed WEO-2015 page.
To order now or find more information about purchasing WEO-2015, go to the IEA Online Bookshop.
Released 27 November 2015
This comprehensive analysis assesses the multiple challenges and opportunities facing India as it develops the resources and infrastructure to meet its energy needs. The report:
See related material
(RELEASED 21 OCTOBER 2015)
The crucial climate change meeting in Paris in December 2015 (COP21) is a major milestone in efforts to combat climate change. Most countries have by now submitted their national pledges, the so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs). This WEO Special Briefing for COP21 updates the analysis and findings of the WEO Special Report on Energy and Climate Change, incorporating all climate pledges up to mid-October and the latest available energy data. It seeks to answer two key questions: what will the energy sector look like in 2030 if all INDCs are implemented fully, and will it be sufficient to put the energy sector on a pathway consistent with the world’s agreed global climate goal. Free download of the special briefing.
(RELEASED ON 8 OCTOBER 2015)
Download the full report in English
The ten countries that make up the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are exerting an increasingly important influence on global energy trends. Underpinned by rapid economic and demographic growth, energy demand in the region has more than doubled in the last 25 years, a trend that is set to continue over the period to 2040. Given Southeast Asia’s role as a global growth engine, understanding what is shaping energy markets in this vibrant region and the implications for energy security and the environment is vital for policy makers and anyone with a stake in the energy sector.
The International Energy Agency, in collaboration with the Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA) prepared the Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2015 in response to a request from ministers at the 7th East Asia Summit Energy in Bali, Indonesia in 2013. Drawing on the latest data and policy and market developments, this report examines the current status and future prospects for energy markets in the region and their implications for energy security, the environment and economic development.
The report highlights:
(RELEASED 15 JUNE 2015)
The world is moving towards a crucial climate change meeting in Paris in December 2015 (COP21). The negotiations there will be based on national pledges, formally known as Intended Nationally Determined Contributions, with the goal of setting the world on a sustainable path. As energy production and use is responsible for two-thirds of greenhouse-gas emissions, the IEA feels an obligation to make a contribution to COP21 – a contribution which reconciles climate and energy needs. Find out more details and for the free download.
(RELEASED ON 12 NOVEMBER 2014)
Does growth in North American oil supply herald a new era of abundance - or does turmoil in parts of the Middle East cloud the horizon? How much can energy efficiency close the competitiveness gap caused by differences in regional energy prices? What considerations should shape decision-making in countries using, pursuing or phasing out nuclear power? How close is the world to using up the available carbon budget, which cannot be exceeded if global warming is to be contained? How can sub-Saharan Africa's energy sector help to unlock a better life for its citizens?
Answers to these questions and a host of others are to be found in the pages of World Energy Outlook 2014 (WEO-2014), released on 12 November in London.
Read more about WEO-2014 | Order WEO-2014
Bringing together the latest data and policy developments, the WEO-2014 presents up to date projections of energy trends for the first time through to 2040. Oil, natural gas, coal, renewables and energy efficiency are covered, along with updates on trends in energy-related CO2 emissions, fossil-fuel and renewable energy subsidies, and universal access to modern energy services.
World Energy Outlook 2014 - special early reports:
- World Energy Investment Outlook
- Africa Energy Outlook
The World Energy Outlook is recognised as the most authoritative source of strategic analysis of global energy markets. It is regularly used as input to the development of government policies and business strategies and raises public awareness of the key energy and environmental challenges the world is facing.
10 November 2015, Nikkei
On 10 November the IEA released World Energy Outlook 2015. It projects that excess supply will continue for the moment in the oil market due to factors such as increased production from OPEC, but that the market will rebalance by around 2020, toward which the prices will go up to $80/bbl.
10 November 2015, El País
The fall in oil prices has put in motion the forces that drive the market to rebalance, increasing demand while supply growth slows. Although the self-adjustment mechanism in the oil market is usually not without obstacles, the price of crude oil will return to $80/bbl by 2020 from the current $47/bbl. That is the main scenario which the International Energy Agency (IEA) considers and was presented in London on Tuesday in its annual report on the energy sector. The IEA warns of the risks of a prolonged period of low prices.
10 November 2015, Le Parisien
The share of coal in the global energy mix will decline while the share of non-hydro renewable energies will increase in the same proportion. The link between economic growth, energy demand and GHG emissions is becoming weaker. GDP will increase by 150% from now until 2040, while global energy demand will only increase by a third over the same period thanks to energy efficiency.
10 November 2015, Xinhua News Agency
The IEA has warned that if the current low oil prices persist, world energy security would be threatened due to the reduced investment and increased reliance on several oil producers with low exploration cost in the Middle East. In the regional distribution picture of oil demand, the developing economies in Asia are expected to be the primary drivers of growth. China is currently in the process of transforming its economy towards less energy intensive sectors, a decision that is expected to re-shape the world energy market.
10 November 2015,The Guardian:
Renewable energy accounted for almost half of all new power plants in 2014, representing a “clear sign that an energy transition is underway”, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Green energy is now the second-largest generator of electricity in the world, after coal, and is set to overtake the dirtiest fossil fuel in the early 2030s, said the IEA’s World Energy Outlook 2015 report, published on Tuesday.
10 November 2015, Financial Times:
In its closely watched annual outlook, the International Energy Agency said oil demand would rise by less than 1 per cent a year between now and 2020, a slower pace than necessary to quickly mop up an oil glut that has driven prices to multiyear lows. “We are approaching the end of the single largest demand growth story in energy history,” Fatih Birol, executive director of the IEA, told the Financial Times ahead of the launch of its long-term forecasts.
10 November 2015, New York Times:
Even as the world shifts toward lower-carbon forms of energy, the changes are happening too slowly to keep global temperatures from rising to dangerous levels in the coming decades, an international research group warns in a report released on Tuesday. “Now is not the time to relax,” Fatih Birol, the agency’s executive director, said in a statement accompanying the report.
10 November 2015, CNBC:
Oil prices are set for a slow recovery, according to the latest report from International Energy Agency (IEA), which cautioned against the deep investment cutbacks in the industry. IEA Executive Director Fatih Birol told CNBC the organization did not think a world in which the price of oil was stuck at $50 for "many many years" was a likely scenario.
10 November 2015, Bloomberg:
The plunge in oil prices risks undermining efforts to reduce the pollution blamed for global warming, especially projects designed to wring more from each barrel of oil, the International Energy Agency concluded in its annual assessment of markets. “Lower prices are not all good news for consumers,” the Paris-based institution wrote in its annual World Energy Outlook released Tuesday.“Longer payback periods mean that the world misses out on almost 15 percent of energy savings.”
10 November 2015, Wall Street Journal MarketWatch:
"OPEC’s strategy could keep Brent at $50 for years: IEA." The comments by the Paris-based monitor of energy trends echoed criticism from within and outside the group over a Saudi-led strategy of keeping the taps open to put pressure on higher-cost rivals such as the U.S.
Sub-Saharan Africa's energy sector can be improved to unlock a better life for its citizens. This report describes one of the most poorly understood parts of the global energy system, offers an authoritative study of its future prospects - broken down by fuel, sector and sub-region - and shows how investment in the sub-Saharan energy sector can stimulate rapid economic and social development across the region.
The IEA Energy Business Council is an executive-level group, with members from a wide variety of companies involved in energy exploration, production and consumption, ranging from commodities companies to automobile manufacturers to wind and solar producers and industry associations. Click here to visit the Energy Business Council website.
10 November 2015, LondonSpeech
15 June 2015, LondonSpeech
12 November 2014, LondonSpeech
13 October 2014, LondonSpeech